Interesting comments from Alex Perriello on the real estate market on this morning's inman video.

Alex is the CEO of Realogy, representing 313,000 agents in 83 countries (40% outside the United States).

He observes the 4 and 2 cycle of real estate whereby there are 4 years of expansion followed by 2 years of contraction - and sees that the 10 years of expansion that we are just coming out of had to end.  We are in our second year of contraction.

He has his people focused on winning locally - grabbing market share when competitors are weak.

Gadget Girl, my pal, asked me about Linkedin and other social networks today "How do you like them."  Here is my reply.....

Business networks are positive social networks.  Take Linkedin, for example.  I can meet with a potential client and tell them all kinds of crap about who I know and relationships that I have which provide value to my consulting clients.  The client will need to believe me and trust that what I say is true, or contact a few references that I provide which are obviously only going to say great things.

With Linkedin, they can review all of my links - they do not need to "trust me."  They can trust the crowd or find someone that they already trust who we mutually know, and ask them.

It is also a nice way to back up your address book whereby everyone keeps their contact information and career information up to date for you. 

I also think that it is random fun to see the people who we know in common - for example -  one of my good friends in high school went to Harvard.  At a Harvard mixer in NYC, they met and became friends with the only other Harvard alum that I know who lives in New York.  Neither of them were aware that Marilyn and I were friends with both of them - now they are and we get together as a group in NYC now - and that is random fun.

What is intelligence, anyway? When I was in the college, I received the kind of philosophy aptitude test that all students took and, against a normal of 100, scored 160. No one at the school had ever seen a figure like that, and for two hours they made a big fuss over me. (It didn't mean anything. The next day I was still a freshman.)


All my life I've been registering scores like that, so that I have the complacent feeling that I'm highly intelligent, and I expect other people to think so too. Actually, though, don't such scores simply mean that I am very good at answering the type of academic questions that are considered worthy of answers by people who make up the intelligence tests - people with intellectual bents similar to mine?


For instance, I had an auto-repair man once, who, on these intelligence tests, could not possibly have scored more than 80, by my estimate. I always took it for granted that I was far more intelligent than he was. Yet, when anything went wrong with my car I hastened to him with it, watched him anxiously as he explored its vitals, and listened to his pronouncements as though they were divine oracles - and he always fixed my car.


Well, then, suppose my auto-repair man devised questions for an intelligence test. Or suppose a carpenter did, or a farmer, or, indeed, almost anyone but an academician. By every one of those tests, I'd prove myself a moron, and I'd be a moron, too. In a world where I could not use my academic training and my verbal talents but had to do something intricate or hard, working with my hands, I would do poorly. My intelligence, then, is not absolute but is a function of the society I live in and of the fact that a small subsection of that society has managed to foist itself on the rest as an arbiter of such matters.


Consider my auto-repair man, again. He had a habit of telling me jokes whenever he saw me. One time he raised his head from under the automobile hood to say: "Doc, a deaf-and-mute guy went into a hardware store to ask for some nails. He put two fingers together on the counter and made hammering motions with the other hand. The clerk brought him a hammer. He shook his head and pointed to the two fingers he was hammering. The clerk brought him nails. He picked out the sizes he wanted, and left. Well, doc, the next guy who came in was a blind man. He wanted scissors. How do you suppose he asked for them?"


Indulgently, I lifted by right hand and made scissoring motions with my first two fingers. Whereupon my auto-repair man laughed raucously and said, "Why, you dumb jerk, He used his voice and asked for them." Then he said smugly, "I've been trying that on all my customers today." "Did you catch many?" I asked. "Quite a few," he said, "but I knew for sure I'd catch you." "Why is that?" I asked. "Because you're so goddamned educated, doc, I knew you couldn't be very smart."


And I have an uneasy feeling he had something there.

I was asked to fill out this questioneer by Susie Hale to be published in her award winning Real Estate newsletter - Frogpond.If you did not catch it, you can read it below

Visionary’s Questions:

1.    As an "industry visionary", what do you see as the major changes occurring in the real estate industry.

The real estate industry has been paralyzed by some cognitive biases that will be addressed now that the market has shifted.  When the market was in bonus mode, business was at ease to just plod along doing what they have always done.

The consumer changed while our industry was basking in the rich glory of the highest run-up in the history of real estate.  In Y2K, the consumer was 72% traditional buyer and 28% internet buyer.  Now the internet buyer is 72% and the traditional buyer is 28%.

With the development of web 2.0 applications, the industry should be poised to make a shift to put the consumer in the center of our thinking, providing them the information they require and providing them outstanding responsiveness and respect. We also need to hold ourselves accountable to higher levels of service than ever before.  We need to use benchmarking systems like QSC and others to constantly ask for feedback on our performance from our clients. Importantly, we also need to have the courage to share the feedback we receive from our clients with other potential clients. It will be a slow process, but I think that the market is putting pressure on brokers and MLSs to start moving in that direction.

2.    What major "corporate players" are driving change and what may be their impact?

Coldwell Banker Real Estate – They see and understands the consumer (agent and consumer) well.  Their vision coupled with the support of her NRT development team put them in a great position to drive change if they choose to go for it.  If CB takes a lead, everyone will need to follow or get swallowed.

Real Living – They are making moves in Brokerage Management ahead of the industry.  They have built a strong brand and have great leadership who embraces new ideas.  They are already leading but their influence needs to grow beyond their regional footprint.

Google Real Estate – Brokers seem poised to give Google their listings.  As such, once the data is there, enterprising non-brokers and non-agents can repurpose the data with no rules or regulations and pull an end-around on the real estate industry.  The impact will be a pull-back by brokers providing their listings to third party websites, and an enlightenment period by MLS that will give brokers more flexibility with listing and sold data.

Craigslist – They will kill the newspapers who have been bleeding the industry for years.  Only 12% of home buyers look at the newspaper for real estate.  Why is the industry investing so many marketing dollars there – until Craigslist, there was no better alternative.

Leaders of MLS alliances for statewide data sharing – MLS systems scale very well economically and functionally.  State law governs the real estate license.  As such, it only seems intuitive that one database of listings should be available to licensed agents and brokers within that state.  Those accessing that data should have free market choices to the interface they prefer.  The combined data should also be available to registered and licensed vendors. The members and the consumers win.

BlackBerry – their push email technology is by far the best solution for REALTORS® and home buyers who use smartphones.   The United States has been lagging in mobile technology usage but that is changing rapidly.  Everyone wants to stay in touch in real-time. If an agent wants to be really responsive to their clients, their technology allows it to happen.


3.    Who are the "individual trendsetters" that are shaping the future real estate industry?

Bob Hale, CEO and President of Houston Association of Realtors – HAR.com is a benchmark for all MLS organizations that truly want to serve their members.  He is steadfastly and unselfishly encouraging his MLS peers to adopt his positioning to support his membership with outstanding web presence.  HAR.com has more than 90% share of voice to the consumer for property search in their market – and they are completely focused on introducing those consumers to their agent and broker members.  The members and the consumers win in the best possible way.

Brokers like Shari Chase, Harley Rouda, Jr, and other brokers who have taken control of their brands.  I expect Sherry Chris to do the same at Coldwell Banker – they are all on the right track.  The broker and the consumer wins.


4.    What are the expectations of the emerging real estate consumer?

Professionalism and full disclosure of information from their REALTOR®.  They do not want to be treated as a lead, they want to be informed.  Purchasing a home is the biggest investment of their lives and they want to be comfortable in the decisions they make.  They want deep, trust relationships with their agents.


5.    How should the Brokerage and Realtor Association / MLS respond to these real estate consumer expectations?

The MLS is responsible to the member needs, which in turn should be consumer focused.  Brokers need to push their MLS for rule revision so they can better align themselves with the service levels that the consumer is requesting. MLSs need to respond to those needs in a progressive way, followed by membership training and research.  There is an overwhelming level of confusion in the real estate ranks that is driven by opinion rather than fact.  Perhaps brokers do not have the budget to measure consumer expectations, in which case, the MLS or Realtor Association should.  This is happening at the national level with NAR research, but despite valiant efforts, the broker and agent are not getting the message.  The local association and mls should measure the local consumer interest to demonstrate that what is happening nationally is, indeed, happening locally.


6.    What changes should a Brokerage implement to ensure profitability in the future?

Take back your Brand and take control of marketing, hold your agents accountable.  Agents are given far too much latitude in personal marketing at the expense of the broker brand, they do not come to the office, they to not participate.  This is driven by brokers who are allowing each agent to disengage from the brokerage and make their own decisions.  Personally, I think that this is dangerous.

7.    What role do you see the Realtor Association / MLS playing to ensure Broker profitability?

The REALTOR® Associations and MLS are not responsible for broker profitability and should not mingle in the broker’s businesses unless the broker breaks rules.  Rather, the Associations and MLS should provide great services and great information that allows their subscribers manage their own businesses effectively.  May the best broker win.


8.    Based upon your vision of the future of the real estate industry, what are you doing to help influence positive change?

I am outspoken, usually to a fault.  WAV Group prides itself on partnering with its clients to drive positive, customer-centric change through quality research and planning. In this way we hope to clear up the distortion in the way our industry tends to see their customer.  Business decisions need to be empirically verified.  We do that.



9.    What books would you recommend as a "must read" that have influenced your vision?

I was a literary neophyte when I was in high school and college.  In the 80s and 90s I was addicted to business books.  Today I look to “media sites with commenting” to learn what is going on and how people feel – I like the interaction that is happening in real time.  When I read a book, I only get to learn from my impression – online I can share in hundreds of impressions around the same idea – its broad in the broadest of terms.

As such, I would suggest people read The Wisdom of the Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations by James Surowiecki, Doubleday.  Surowiecki is a contemporary of mine, we grew up in the same era so I hear his voice.  He writes for the New Yorker and his writing often appears in the NYTimes, WSJ, Wired and Slate.  The topic is highly relevant to the real estate industry today.

10.    What advice would you give Brokerages and Realtor Associations / MLSs to assure they stay relevant and successful in the future?

Stick with the basics.

•    Research and Profile your customer every year and build a business plan around the services you offer.  
•    Find out what level of service the customer expects from you.  
•    Customize the service you deliver to meet your customers expectations and their needs.  We are too “needs” focused today.
•    Put in a fair margin that meets the value expectations of your customer and allows you to withstand the cyclical nature of this industry and invest in the future.
•    Build a marketing plan to communicate your value with your customer in a way that your customer understands.
•    Advertise and communicate with your client in their space.  
•    Deliver on your promise in the best possible way.  
•    Measure your efforts.